You are in a reality show, and the show is way too real that they threw into an island. Only two kinds of animals are in the island, the tigers and the deer. Though unfortunate but the truth is that, each day exactly two animals meet each other. So, the outcomes are one of the following
If in some day you are sure that you will not be killed, you leave the island immediately and thus win the reality show. And you can assume that two animals in each day are chosen uniformly at random from the set of living creatures in the island (including you).
Now you want to find the expected probability of you winning the game. Since in outcome (d), you can make your own decision, you want to maximize the probability. 继续阅读【概率期望】Island of Survival